Modi is painting on a bigger canvas - In Arvind Kejriwal Vs Modi, it's Advantage Modi.

The two most likely scenarios for the next government is a 'third front' government supported by the congress (quite like what we've seen in Delhi now) or, a government led by the BJP-.
It is easy to see that in the first scenario the numbers will come from a large number of parties getting together to create an alternative to Modi & the BJP. The nucleus of which this time around could be AAP.
So far, the third front has been successful in forming the government twice with Jai Prakash Narayan and VP Singh being the nucleuses for the formation with BJP support.  And the third time with Stop BJP being the necules of the formation with Congress support.
This time the formation is likely to be a combination of the first two and the third kind. With Arvind Kejriwal (AAP) and Anti Modi- Anti BJP sentiments forming its dual nucleuses.

The idea is likely to be propped up by a constituency of permanent haters of  Modi and the BJP.   Who would also be most vocal in their support of AAP and the third front endeavor.

But as before, the conflicts and contradictions of such a formation are likely to do them in even if they are successful at forming a government. Presenting BJP with a second opportunity soon.

Unlike this motley crowd of the third front that can draw its numbers from virtually anywhere, the BJP will have to pull most of the weight itself to get a chance to lead a government at the center.

The rise of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is likely to have two possible outcomes.
1. It will hasten the process of reforms / remaking of the political parties, if it succeeds,  or
2. Damage the cause of emergence of new political alternatives, at least for sometime, if it fails.

The rise of AAP is likely to invite a response from political parties to reform-remake their organisations and agenda, most of which will be just for face value. That is likely to make some but not a significant change to their prospect in the coming elections. In any case most of them are not too worried about their prospects. Having taken refuge in the idea of being part of a 'third front', any number would be good enough for them.

The BJP on the other hand has a tougher task since it has to pull most of the weight on its own. So it must undertake a more sincere effort to better itself to meet the challenge.

The rise of AAP presents a very interesting opportunity to Modi & co. It gives them more leverage to rid the BJP of the dead weight and stagnant thinking. This they must seize.

But also, Modi is doing what is the correct thing to do. He is painting on a much bigger canvas.

While Arvind Kejriwal & co seek to tap into the frustrations & restlessness of the growing number of young people, essentially a cynical plank, Modi has the more positive and bigger agenda.

While Arvind Kejriwal & co. talk mostly about ridding India of its corruption, Modi talks about at least three big things -
1. New and better opportunities for all
2. A government that works, and
3. A secure India

Modi has both the advantage of a track record of good performance and the better political philosophy that is based on maximising individual potential.

These are the thing that must be articulated - the mostest and in the bestest way possible.  It is the better option than cobbling up a collation by compromise.

The large and rising youth population presents a great opportunity for the BJP to take a big leap forward in growing its support base. It must use the opportunity of rising young & aspiring population to bring in more people to its thinking of self reliance and realisation of the best potential of every individual.

Also AAP seems to have gained mostly on highlighting local issues that may not be of much consequence elsewhere. In Pune for example where I live water shortage and high electricity bills are not really the concerns that are agitating people here the most. Lack of opportunities, a broken education system, rising prices are what bother people more here.

Even if the BJP loses its chance in 2014, it is mostly likely to get a second chance soon (maybe in 2016). To make the most of its chances both now and if it so happens next in 2016, it must persist with reaching out to the most number of people with a better and better articulation of its core values.

In the end, politics is about a fight for ideas and BJP can take solace from the fact that it has had very significant influence on the political discourse and direction of government policy over the last two decades.

There will also be many state elections that will come-up post 2014 general elections, if the BJP can regain some of the states where it is strong and make inroads into new ones, it stands a chance to make great contributions to India. After all, most Indian states are as big or bigger than many countries of the world. Even if 5-10 states are run well and set good examples for the rest, it'd make a significant difference to India's progress.

Manmohan vs Modi

Essentially Modi is a Supply side thinker. Manmohan a demand side thinker. 10 years of trying to stimulate only the demand through cash and capital infusion has resulted in a grinding slow pace of economic growth largely due to supply side constraints. Removing these supply side constraints is what Modi (and BJP) is all about. Indeed Governance in India today is all about ensuring supply side efficiency and capacity. Demand generation is automatically fueled by the large young and aspiring population.

The present regime has chosen the easy way out. Modi et. al. are willing to do the hard work. So sure was the present government that the aspiring millions would automatically result in the continued high economic growth that they almost completely disregarded the need to create the capacity in the system to carry higher growth.

Surprising that no one has articulated this. Modi baiters are too blinded by their dislike for him to acknowledge this. In fact they attempt to obfuscate the distinction by saying that the BJP and Congress have the same economic policies.

Raghuram Rajam talks about it briefly in his article on Why India Slowed http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/z8cxLUZgb36ilapN9fZwdN/Raghuram-Rajan--Why-India-slowed.html when he talks about lack of availability of land being the reason for the slow down. But that is not all, he has forgotten to mention several other supply side factors such as the lack of availability of skilled labor, creation of productive assets (infrastructure) etc. as also factors that are seriously constraining growth. And that it is this serious supply side constraint that has resulted in a lack of capital now (with investments being held back). So we've arrived at a point where all the 3 factors of production (land, capital & labor) are in short supply. Is it any surprise then that growth is slowing down?
Rajam also talks about the lack of decision making (policy making) capacity & institutional capacity as the reason for the slowdown. In short compromised governance.

This is exactly what Modi et. al. are talking about - eliminating the supply side bottleneck by the using innovation and re-framing policies. And by putting emphasis on execution and governance. That is to my mind the correct remedy for India at the moment.

Clearly we also need people who have a track record of execution, governance and supply side thinking in the drivers seat to speed things up once more.

-tarun

Essentially Modi is a Supply side thinker. Manmohan a demand side thinker. 10 years od trying to stimulate the demand through cash and capital infusion has resulted in a grinding slow pace of enconomic growth laregly due to supply side constraints. Removing these supply side constrainst is what Modi (and BJP) is all about. Indeed Governance in India today is all about ensuring supply side efficiency and capacity. Demand generation is automatically fueled by the large young and aspiring population.

The present regime has choosen the easy way out. Modi et. al. are willing to do the hardwork. So sure was the present government that the aspiring millions would automatically result in the continued high economic growth that they almost compeletly disregarded the need to create the capacity in the system to carry higher growth.

Surprising that no one has articulated this. Modi baiters are too blinded by their dislike for him to acknowledge this. Infact they attempt to opfusicate the distinction by saying that the BJP and Congress have the same economic policies.

Raghuram Rajam talks about it briefly in his article on Why India Slowed down when he talks about the lack of avaiability of land being the reason for the slow down. But that is not all, he has forgotten to mention several other supply side factors such as the lack of avaiability of skilled labour, creation of productive assets (infrastucture) etc. as also factors that are seriousy constraining growth. And that it is this serious supply side constraint that has resulted in a lack of capital now (with investments being held back). So we've arrived at a point where all the 3 factors of production (land, capital & labour) are in short supply. Is it any surprise then that growth is slowing down?

Modi et. al. are talking about eliminating the supply side bottleneck by the using innovation and reframing policies. And by putting emphasis on execution. That is to my mind the correct remedy for India at the moment.

Clearly we also need people who have a tracker record of execution, governance and supply side thinking in the drivers seat to speed things up once more.