Possible fate of AAP
Here is a view the runs counter to perception made popular by TV studios that AAP poses a serious threat to Modi & the BJP. Here are the reasons
AAP doesn't look as pretty standing up with Congress, CPI/M & JD(U) et. al., as it looked standing alone. It compromises there anti-establishment stand.
Mostly, it is the socialists that are gravitating towards AAP. Most likely support to AAP is going to come from people who are stridently Anti-Modi, Anti-BJP. These are people who voted for Congress or a regional party (if they didn't like the Congress). Which would mean that AAP would cut more into the votes of its friends (and spoil their party) rather than that of the BJP.
Media was similarly obsessed with Mayawati post her spectacular win in 2007 in UP. Mayawati even fielded about 400 candidates across India for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But the result was an even poorer performance than before.
A third front with AAP at its nucleus and propped up by Congress looks like the scenario Congress is gunning for. With a lot of conflicting ambitions within, the so called 'third front' is still to take shape. Which implies a lot of uncertainties. Something that a lot of voters would reject.
A lot of regional parties strongly opposed to Congress would distance itself from a formation that is seen to Include the Congress.
Mobilisation is the strength of the political parties, especially of cadre based parties. AAP just doesn't have the resources and network to mobilise voters pan India.
Most people who would be donors to AAP would be uncertain about the outcome of the venture and therefore hesitant to commit.
AAP wants to target the network on NGOs that are often in sharp disagreement with each other. They may be able to suspend their disagreements but only very temporarily and very superficially.
Cacophonic TV debates and banal editorials are not likely to add support to AAP in great measures.
Modi's fine articulation of the Right of Center economic and social thinking is already bringing in new converts to the Right of Center thinking.
AAP mostly would only end up playing the disruptor in a very few urban pockets.
The AAP Antidote
So what more should the BJP do to mitigate the risks of AAP disrupting its game in the few seats it can?
BJP/Modi can and should counter AAP and all their friends, firstly, by highlighting the need for a very stable and strong government to pull the country out of its current troubles and that the BJP governments have a distinguished performance track record to best deliver on this count.
Secondly, it will have to expand the call for Congress Mukt Bharat to include -
Thirdly, it must go to the elections with
Lastly, it must understand that there is some fascination with AAP and it must stay away from excessively attacking AAP. That would be counter productive. It might be seen as nervousness. Not really the desired trait a party promising a strong government should display. The way to counter AAP should instead be by, highlighting how the BJP has already taken effective steps to eliminate corruption in the states ruled by it and the long list of upright leaders in the party.
Regardless of the outcome, this approach would have a positive impact on the politics and India.
Here is a view the runs counter to perception made popular by TV studios that AAP poses a serious threat to Modi & the BJP. Here are the reasons
AAP doesn't look as pretty standing up with Congress, CPI/M & JD(U) et. al., as it looked standing alone. It compromises there anti-establishment stand.
Mostly, it is the socialists that are gravitating towards AAP. Most likely support to AAP is going to come from people who are stridently Anti-Modi, Anti-BJP. These are people who voted for Congress or a regional party (if they didn't like the Congress). Which would mean that AAP would cut more into the votes of its friends (and spoil their party) rather than that of the BJP.
Media was similarly obsessed with Mayawati post her spectacular win in 2007 in UP. Mayawati even fielded about 400 candidates across India for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But the result was an even poorer performance than before.
A third front with AAP at its nucleus and propped up by Congress looks like the scenario Congress is gunning for. With a lot of conflicting ambitions within, the so called 'third front' is still to take shape. Which implies a lot of uncertainties. Something that a lot of voters would reject.
A lot of regional parties strongly opposed to Congress would distance itself from a formation that is seen to Include the Congress.
Mobilisation is the strength of the political parties, especially of cadre based parties. AAP just doesn't have the resources and network to mobilise voters pan India.
Most people who would be donors to AAP would be uncertain about the outcome of the venture and therefore hesitant to commit.
AAP wants to target the network on NGOs that are often in sharp disagreement with each other. They may be able to suspend their disagreements but only very temporarily and very superficially.
Cacophonic TV debates and banal editorials are not likely to add support to AAP in great measures.
Modi's fine articulation of the Right of Center economic and social thinking is already bringing in new converts to the Right of Center thinking.
AAP mostly would only end up playing the disruptor in a very few urban pockets.
The AAP Antidote
So what more should the BJP do to mitigate the risks of AAP disrupting its game in the few seats it can?
BJP/Modi can and should counter AAP and all their friends, firstly, by highlighting the need for a very stable and strong government to pull the country out of its current troubles and that the BJP governments have a distinguished performance track record to best deliver on this count.
Secondly, it will have to expand the call for Congress Mukt Bharat to include -
- Berojgari Mukt Bharat (Unemployment Free India)
- Bhay Mukt Bharat (Fear free India)
- Bhrastachaar Mukt Bharat (Corruption Free India)
- Bimari Mukt Bharat (Diseases Free India)
- Barbadi Mukt Bharat (Waste Free India)
Thirdly, it must go to the elections with
- Pro-active candidates (ones that are willing to work hard on the ground)
- Its Performance track record and
- a Positive Agenda for transforming India
Lastly, it must understand that there is some fascination with AAP and it must stay away from excessively attacking AAP. That would be counter productive. It might be seen as nervousness. Not really the desired trait a party promising a strong government should display. The way to counter AAP should instead be by, highlighting how the BJP has already taken effective steps to eliminate corruption in the states ruled by it and the long list of upright leaders in the party.
Regardless of the outcome, this approach would have a positive impact on the politics and India.
I don't know why media is creating so much hype about AAP. Let the honeymoon period get over then they will see the reality. The same thing happened with Mamata Bannerjee, Akhilesh Yadav. Both of these politician were awarded Indian of the year award by CNN IBN and we all know how they performed. Giving commentary is different thing while facing bowl in the cricket ground is different thing. During Anna moments also they successfully mobilize people in Delhi but failed in other part of India. Their fast in Mumbai was a big failure. And their success in Delhi was also because of Baba Ramdev and BJP supports. I have another theory on why media is giving so much hype to Aap. "Jab Kissee ko Nuksaann Pahuchanna ho to ushe Uchaahe per Pahucha ke Giranna Cahihye" ( if you want to hurt someone then you should push them after taking them to the top). So its CONgress dirty politics of through MSM.
ReplyDeleteRight on the dot, Tarun, excellent insights. BJP need not be bothered by this media created creature called AAP . All they have to do is propagate their message of all round growth thru strong leadership.
ReplyDeleteSomeone I know shared this with me and I can't help but agree with what it says. Read on and be your own judge... "Arvind Kejriwal is more dangerous than congress. This is a big game plan of congress to keep BJP out of power in the next LS election. 1) Kejriwal will fulfill all the promises of AAP like reducing power tarrif and giving 700 litres of water at least for two months...so that he can develop a image of most developing PM candidate and the can overpower the image of Modi.. Any govt can easily run the govt for three months even if its bankrupt. Giving free water and reducing power tariff will affect the Delhi state exchequer badly but this is something is hidden charges carried by the AAP govt. 2) The aim of AAP is not to win in the LS election but to chunk a large portion of Anti-congress votes....which will go to BJP..even if AAP succeed in getting 30‚000 votes in urban areas this will reduce the chance of BJP getting win on at least 30 seats...on the contrary this will increase the congress seats by 30-40. 3) Now the calculation will go like this if LS election is declared today and AAP doesnt contest election than BJP will win on 200+ seats and Modi will surely become the PM..congress will win on 90-100 seats....but as explained above there will be a decrease in BJP and increase in congress seats by 30-40. Now the seats share is congress 125-135 and BJP 160-170... 4) Though BJP is still the largest party like in Delhi it won't be able to form the govt as all the parties except Shiv sena and akali dal will support to congress in the name of psedu secularism including the newly Patriotic party AAP as they did in Delhi now and BJP will sit in opposition...it will be a Delhi picture.... 5) Next congress will nominate Kejriwal as PM and will be part of govt just as happened in Delhi..... This is because the aim of congress is not to win but to clean the image of congress and wat can be a better process to nominate newly so called immandaar Arvind for PM and the aim of AAP is not to win but stop BJP from win.. 6) Arvind talks good just like Mahatma Gandhi...it is Gandhi who stopped Sardar Patel in becoming PM and made Nehru as the PM. History repeats itself Arvind is next Nehru and Modi is Patel... It is after 60 yrs people realized the mistake of 1947 now it will take another 60 yrs to realize who Kejriwal is? Hats off to congress politics!!"
ReplyDeleteYour analysis assumes that AAP would not be able to scale up. Please read my blog on AAP's destiny. It runs counter to yours ;-) - http://hkcontrariwise.blogspot.in/2014/01/aam-aadmi-party-spoiler-or-saviour.html
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